Published in PLOS One on 2025-10-07, this study is presented as an attributed evidence briefing. The excerpts below are the original researchers’ words, reproduced under their Creative Commons Attribution licence. Health Signal has selected the abstract and, where needed, opening background paragraphs; the complete methods, results, limitations and references remain in the linked paper.
Original authors: Molalign Aligaz Adisu, Tesfaye Engdaw Habtie, Tegene Atamenta Kitaw, Abraham Dessie Gessesse, Bogale Molla Woreta, Yabibal Asfaw Derso, Alemu Birara Zemariam, Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen
Source: PLOS One • DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0333787
Read the complete primary study ↗ · Creative Commons Attribution licence
From the researchers
Abstract
Female cancers—breast, cervical, ovarian, and uterine—pose significant public health and socio-economic challenges, particularly in low- and middle-income countries like Ethiopia. However, detailed and geographically disaggregated data are limited, hindering effective policymaking. To address this gap, our study utilizes the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methodology to analyze 21 years (2000–2021) of national and sub-national trends and risk factors for these cancers in Ethiopia, with projections to 2040, to support targeted cancer control and health system strengthening.
Using the 2021GBD data, we analyzed the national and sub-national prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for female specific cancer in Ethiopia. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed for projecting epidemiological trajectories through 2040. All statistical analyses and data visualization were performed using Python.
In 2021, the Ethiopian incidence of female breast, cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancer was 7,308 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 5,794–9,199), 7,884 (95% UI: 5,759–11,765), 2,054 (95% UI: 1,034–2,929), and 669 (95% UI: 422–1,126), respectively. Cervical cancer accounts for the highest number of DALYs, 162,776 (95% UI: 119,900–239,116), followed by breast, ovarian, and uterine cancer at 155,931 (95% UI: 123,015–196,249), 40,430 (95% UI: 19,885–57,414), and 8,882 (95% UI: 5,579–15,240), respectively. Projections to 2040 indicate a continued rise in incidence for all female cancers.
Breast and ovarian cancers are emerging public health crises in Ethiopia, with significant increases in prevalence, incidence, and DALYs. While the cervical cancer burden is declining, rising YLDs indicate a growing need for long-term care. The projected rise in female cancer incidence calls for urgent, targeted interventions focused on early diagnosis, age-appropriate screening, and improved cancer care services to reduce the adverse impact on Ethiopian women's health.
Introduction
Cancer remains a significant global health problem, the second leading cause of death worldwide, disproportionately impacting low- and middle-income countries where over 70% of cancer deaths occur [1,2]. Increasingly, the burden is most attributable to demographic change, epidemiologic transition, and continued inequities in access and quality of care [2,3]. In Sub-Saharan African countries, the convergence of a growing and ageing population, rapid urbanization, and lifestyle changes is driving a doubling of new cancer cases, further straining already compromised health systems [1,4].
Ethiopia, the second-most populous country in Africa, is currently facing a critical health transition. While tremendous progress has been made against infectious diseases, the country now grapples with a mounting double burden of disease, marked by a rapid increase in non-communicable diseases (NCDs), like cancer [5]. Female cancers, such as breast, cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancer represent a major public health challenge in this context [6,7]. These cancers collectively impose significant socio-economic burdens, resulting in premature mortality, impaired quality of life, and catastrophic healthcare expenditures on individuals and families, driving existing inequalities [8,9].
Reading this evidence
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© 2025 Molalign Aligaz Adisu, Tesfaye Engdaw Habtie, Tegene Atamenta Kitaw, Abraham Dessie Gessesse, Bogale Molla Woreta, Yabibal Asfaw Derso, Alemu Birara Zemariam, Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen. Excerpts reproduced under CC BY. Selection, formatting and contextual notes by Health Signal. The researchers are the authors of the source study, not members of Health Signal’s staff.
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